Will Tablets Cannibalize Laptop Sales? :
If any of you have gone out to buy a laptop computer lately, you may have asked yourself "do I need a laptop or could I get by with a tablet?" We know from our research that this question is a major concern for a lot of consumers these days. Tablets have really clouded their thinking when it comes to new laptop purchases.
Last summer, when the PC vendors were planning their spring collection of laptops, consumer tablets were still in their infancy. The Apple iPad had some serious interest from consumers, but at that time, it had only been on the market for a few months and the vendors did not see it as a threat to their laptop business. By the holiday season, PC vendors realized that Apple not only had a hit on their hands but also were pushing more and more non-PC vendors to jump on the tablet bandwagon. They also saw that Apple's iPad and Google's Android were starting to get serious attention from potential laptop buyers.
Though Dell had a tablet on the market for the holiday, it was not a winning product given its use of an Android OS that was mainly optimized for smartphones. All of the other PC vendors were still either stuck in the Windows camp or just too far behind in creating their own Android device that they missed any real chance to get tablet branding mindshare during this important buying season. Instead, they held back and basically ceded the market to Apple for all of 2010.
With Android's Honeycomb version coming out soon and Palm's new TouchPad about to enter the market this summer, the urge for consumers to consider buying a tablet will be in full swing by Q4. This level of consumer interest in tablets is bound to have an impact on laptop sales in the future. The big question is how much will tablets cannibalize laptop sales? And is there something the vendors can do to keep them from really eating into their overall market for laptops?
At the moment, the projections of tablets sales range from Corning, the maker of Gorilla Glass, predicting 180 million tablets to be sold WW in 2014, to most market researchers predicting sales of laptops for that year will be around 220 million WW. In a perfect world, people would be able to buy both a laptop and a tablet, but that's not realistic. While that may be the case for some, the sense I am getting from early research is that there will be a lot of people making a tablet the primary tool in their digital lives.
The problem for the PC vendors is that the projection of cannibalization of laptops by tablets is also all over the map. Some financial analysts that I talked with think that tablets could cannibalize as much as 50 percent of the laptop business for traditional PC vendors by 2014. But in talks with PC vendors, they currently believe that tablets won't impact their total laptop sales by more than 10 to 12 percent over the next three years. However, I think that is wishful thinking.
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